“If you made this decision 10 years ago, would you be happy with that decision today?
If you make this decision today, do you think you will be happy 10 years from now?”
This mental model is from Ray Dalio’s book Principles and is one of my favorite decision making tools.
Even in today’s fast paced world of tech, you can often explore this model to great extent. Even putting this on a 5 or a 3 year window is a helpful frame of thought.
The approach described in this article, shown as a visual guide.
Figure details
Ray Dalio Bidirectional Decision Model Identify Decision: Frame major business pivot, partnership, or leap Retrospective Lens: Ask: If made 10 (or 5) yrs ago, would you be happy now? Prospective Lens: Ask: If made today, will you be happy 10 yrs from now? Action Filter: Proceed if historical & forward frames align positively
How I use this mental model in business decisions?
Business decisions are one of the places I most often use this model.
When I decided to start Content Allies, a B2B Podcast Agency, I looked over a 5 year horizon.
I evaluated to myself
“If I had started this 5 years ago, I would have likely been the biggest company in the industry by now. If I start it today, I still think it’s possible that in the next 5 years I could be one of the top companies in the industry.
Based on where the technology was in podcasting 5-10 years ago, and where it is at today, I feel confident that in 5-10 years from now it will still exist in a somewhat similar form.”
Anytime I start a business, bring on a business partner, make a large investment, take a bold leap forward… I use this framework.
I use it to evaluate if I think this is the right move.
Using this mental model on the personal side
This model is not just for business.
Anytime you are faced with a big life decision, this framework helps your frame.
By acting like the decision was in your past, you can imagine what your life would look like today if you had made it.
And from that frame, you can extrapolate how your future will look if you make that decision today.
No decision is perfect, but I hope this framework can help.
Sources
Sources checked October 7, 2026
Jake Jorgovan
Jake works with enterprise leaders on marketing strategy and executive talent. He co-founded Alpha Apex Group, founded Content Allies, owns Listen Network and is a partner in Fieldtrip, a group of marketing agencies. He founded Lead Cookie and later sold it.
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